Photo : Ukrainian Defence ministry press
25 January 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #107
IN BRIEF
By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Joeana Cera Matthews
ITALY
Presidential Elections 2022: First round of voting inconclusive
On 24 January, the first round of voting for the Italian presidential elections that lasted for five hours saw Italian lawmakers unsuccessful in agreeing on a candidate. Although Prime Minister Mario Draghi was the most popular choice; however, concerns of political instability led to a unanimous decision not being reached. Rightist League leader Matteo Salvini commented on the proceedings: “I am working to ensure that in the next few hours the centre-right will offer not just one but several quality proposals.” The second round of voting will be held on 25 January. (Gavin Jones, Angela Amante and Crispian Balmer, “Italy president vote ends in stalemate; leaders seek deal,” Reuters, 25 January 2022)
REGIONAL
Ukraine: EU Foreign Ministers meet to discuss response to imminent Russian invasion
On 24 January, EU Foreign Ministers met in Brussels to discuss the measures to be undertaken in the face of a Russian invasion into Ukraine. Following the meeting, EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell commented on the necessity of a “united” response from the member states if Russia were to escalate tensions. Borrell added that the EU would support Ukraine to counter Russian attacks while maintaining the “path of dialogue” in resolving the conflict. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken virtually participated in the same. The meeting also saw European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announce a new Ukrainian aid fund of EUR 1.2 billion that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called “timely”. (“Ukraine-Russia crisis: Attack will have ′consequences,′ EU and US warn,” Deutsche Welle, 24 January 2022)
Ireland: Russia to hold live-fire naval exercise off the coast of Ireland
On 24 January, Ireland informed Russia that it was not welcome to host a live-fire naval exercise off its coast. Ireland has a long-standing policy of military neutrality but keeping the rising tensions in mind and with Russia's troop buildup on the Ukrainian border, it chose to decline Moscow’s notification. But, Ireland's Defence Minister Simon Coveney said that the country did not have the power to stop the exercises. He further said: "We don't have the power to prevent this happening, but certainly I've made it clear to the Russian ambassador in Ireland that it's not welcome." Russia's timing of holding live-fire naval exercises away from any of its permanent bases has raised many Defense pundits' concerns. The location of the activities would hamper flights to and from Ireland and would also pose a risk to the transatlantic data cables laid on the sea bed. ("Ireland tells Russia live-fire naval exercise is 'not welcome'," BBC, 24 January 2022)
A rare snowstorm in southern Mediterranean countries
On 24 January, a heavy snowstorm called Elpida paralyzed the capital of Athens overnight, as the government declared a holiday in parts of the country. Temperatures in the capital fell to minus 14 degrees Celsius; this was an unusual occurrence. But due to climate change, this was the second time the phenomenon happened in the last two years. Climate Change and Civil Protection Minister Christos Stylianides said: "We ask citizens to avoid leaving their homes. It will be a difficult night…the height of the snow is unprecedented in some areas." Albania also closed all its elementary and high schools due to the freezing temperatures, while Turkish authorities halted their flights at the Istanbul Airport due to heavy snowfall. ("Snowstorm brings much of Turkey and Greece to a halt," Deutsche Welle, 24 January 2022; "Heavy snow paralyses Greek capital, crews struggling to free stranded drivers," Reuters, 24 January 2022)
ECONOMY
Ukraine: Global stock markets fall sharply following NATO announcement of military reinforcements
On 24 January, global stock markets fell steeply following a NATO announcement of additional forces being reinforced along its eastern flank. European markets saw a decline of 3.8 per cent which is considered to be the lowest since October 2021, as well as the biggest one-day decline in 18 months. While volatility rose, the UK’s blue-chip index fell by 197 points, losing GBP 53 billion off its share index. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies were affected by the sell-off in risk as bitcoin fell to a six-month low of USD 33,000. An Equiti Capital market analyst commented on the situation: “Traders continue to be in selling mode as fears mount surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation.” (Graeme Wearden, “Global stock markets dive as fears of Ukraine conflict rattle investors,” The Guardian, 24 January 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Ukraine: US and NATO dispatch further military support to Eastern Europe, infuriating Kremlin
On 24 January, NATO announced its decision to provide Eastern Europe with increased military aid in the form of fighter jets and ships. This move, along with the Pentagon’s deployment of 8,500 troops on heightened alert, is bound to anger the Kremlin given Putin’s earlier warning of a military buildup being a “red line”. Following a meeting with the leaders of the US, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, the UK and the EU, the alliance’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said: “We agree that any further aggression by Russia against Ukraine will have severe costs.” He also commented on the extensive support allies were providing by contributing additional forces. However, the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov alleged that the West’s “information hysteria” and “concrete actions” were escalating tensions in the region. (“Russia tensions: NATO bolsters deployments, angering Kremlin,” Deutsche Welle, 24 January 2022; Daniel Boffey, Andrew Roth, Julian Borger and Kim Willsher, “ US puts 8,500 troops on heightened alert amid fears over Ukraine,” The Guardian, 24 January 2022; Quint Forgey, “US puts 8,500 troops on alert as Russia tensions ramp up,” POLITICO, 24 January 2022)
Norway: Day two of the Taliban talks in Oslo
On 24 January, the Taliban met with diplomats of the US, France, UK, Germany, the EU, and Norway in the capital to discuss unfreezing of the Afghan assets abroad. Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan said: "From these meetings we are sure of getting support for Afghanistan's humanitarian, health and education sectors." About USD 10 billion of Afghan assets were frozen abroad by the US and other Western countries in response to the Taliban taking over Kabul. The Taliban representative Shafiullah Azam said: "We are requesting them to unfreeze Afghan assets and not punish ordinary Afghans because of the political discourse." Afghan activists in Norway also confronted the Taliban delegation regarding the whereabouts of two women who were arrested for protesting against the mandate on wearing hijab. Diplomats of the UN took note of the issue and called on the Taliban to investigate and release the women. ("Taliban, Western envoys discuss Afghanistan crisis in Oslo," Deutsche Welle, 24 January 2022; "Afghan activists ask about whereabouts of two women as Taliban talks with West continue," Euronews, 24 January 2022)
Western countries advise families of embassy staff to withdraw from Ukraine
On 24 January, the US, UK, Australia, and Germany advised and informed the families of diplomatic staff to leave Kyiv as the situation at the Ukrainian border turned tense. Several other countries also announced caution against traveling to Ukraine due to the mounting tensions as Russia increases its buildup on the border with Kyiv. The US State Department's travel advisory said: "The security conditions, particularly along Ukraine's borders, in Russia-occupied Crimea, and in Russia-controlled eastern Ukraine, are unpredictable and can deteriorate with little notice." The UK also took measures even though its diplomatic staff were not in immediate threat and called back about half of the staff working in Kyiv. ("Ukraine: US, Western countries tell families of embassy staff to leave," Deutsche Welle, 24 January 2022; "Ukraine: UK withdrawing some embassy staff from Kyiv," BBC, 24 January 2022)